Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Insiders Poll 2008: Clinton vs. McCain?
James Barnes, National Journal
When the young Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville toured the United States in the early 19th century, he made an observation about presidential elections that still rings true: "For a long while before the appointed time has come, the election becomes the important and, so to speak, all-engrossing topic of discussion."
National Journal's latest survey of Democratic and Republican Insiders -- members of Congress, party activists, fundraisers, consultants, lobbyists, and interest-group leaders for whom presidential politics is an "all-engrossing topic" -- finds that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican John McCain continue to be viewed as the candidates most likely to clinch the major parties' 2008 presidential nominations.
The Insiders' assessments of the 2008 contests have changed considerably since May [PDF]. Back then, Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia was ranked second by his party's Insiders, after having been in first place throughout 2005. But on his way to losing his bid for a second term, Allen tripped repeatedly over his own feet -- and has now vanished from the top 10. Another Democrat, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, ran second in May but disappeared from the Insiders' top 10 after formally announcing that he will not run. Meanwhile, political phenomenon Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who in May made his first appearance on his party's top-10 list by grabbing the lowest rung, has rocketed to the No. 2 spot -- putting him just ahead of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina but still well behind Clinton.
Insiders were asked to list and rank the top five contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination. In tallying scores, a first-place vote was worth 5 points; a second-place score, 4 points; and so on. National Journal's top 10 rankings are based on each candidate's overall score. In all, 220 Insiders participated in this survey: 70 Congressional Insiders (36 Democratic lawmakers, 34 Republican ones) and 150 Political Insiders (73 Democrats, 77 Republicans).
GOP front-runner McCain, who at 70 has taken to joking that he's "older than dirt," contrasts starkly with the trio of Democrats viewed as having the best chances of winning their party's nomination. Not only is he considerably older than any of them, the Arizonan also has 20 years' experience in the Senate -- more than Clinton, Obama, and Edwards combined. Sen. Clinton, her party's solid front-runner, is hot off a landslide re-election in New York to a second term. Obama has been in the Senate only since January 2005. He was an Illinois state senator for eight years. Edwards served a single Senate term. Likewise, Warner is relatively inexperienced: He had one four-year term in Richmond.
Inexperience isn't limited to the Democratic field, however. The No. 2 ranking Republican, Mitt Romney, has been in elected office only four years -- as governor of Massachusetts. "Experience," observed Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, "is something that is overvalued by people who have it and undervalued by people who don't."
When the young Frenchman Alexis de Tocqueville toured the United States in the early 19th century, he made an observation about presidential elections that still rings true: "For a long while before the appointed time has come, the election becomes the important and, so to speak, all-engrossing topic of discussion."
National Journal's latest survey of Democratic and Republican Insiders -- members of Congress, party activists, fundraisers, consultants, lobbyists, and interest-group leaders for whom presidential politics is an "all-engrossing topic" -- finds that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican John McCain continue to be viewed as the candidates most likely to clinch the major parties' 2008 presidential nominations.
The Insiders' assessments of the 2008 contests have changed considerably since May [PDF]. Back then, Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia was ranked second by his party's Insiders, after having been in first place throughout 2005. But on his way to losing his bid for a second term, Allen tripped repeatedly over his own feet -- and has now vanished from the top 10. Another Democrat, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, ran second in May but disappeared from the Insiders' top 10 after formally announcing that he will not run. Meanwhile, political phenomenon Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who in May made his first appearance on his party's top-10 list by grabbing the lowest rung, has rocketed to the No. 2 spot -- putting him just ahead of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina but still well behind Clinton.
Insiders were asked to list and rank the top five contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination. In tallying scores, a first-place vote was worth 5 points; a second-place score, 4 points; and so on. National Journal's top 10 rankings are based on each candidate's overall score. In all, 220 Insiders participated in this survey: 70 Congressional Insiders (36 Democratic lawmakers, 34 Republican ones) and 150 Political Insiders (73 Democrats, 77 Republicans).
GOP front-runner McCain, who at 70 has taken to joking that he's "older than dirt," contrasts starkly with the trio of Democrats viewed as having the best chances of winning their party's nomination. Not only is he considerably older than any of them, the Arizonan also has 20 years' experience in the Senate -- more than Clinton, Obama, and Edwards combined. Sen. Clinton, her party's solid front-runner, is hot off a landslide re-election in New York to a second term. Obama has been in the Senate only since January 2005. He was an Illinois state senator for eight years. Edwards served a single Senate term. Likewise, Warner is relatively inexperienced: He had one four-year term in Richmond.
Inexperience isn't limited to the Democratic field, however. The No. 2 ranking Republican, Mitt Romney, has been in elected office only four years -- as governor of Massachusetts. "Experience," observed Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, "is something that is overvalued by people who have it and undervalued by people who don't."
# posted by Charles @ 6:39 AM 
